The price set at a meeting of the China Smelter Purchasing Group (CSPT) on Thursday was $80 per ton and 8 cents per pound, three people familiar with the matter said.
The first-quarter forecast is 16% lower than the fourth-quarter forecast of $95 per ton and 9.5 cents per pound, the highest in six years.
The rate is the lowest since the third quarter of 2022 and is in line with the 2024 annual benchmark of $80 per ton, or 8 cents per pound, set by China’s leading smelters and global miners earlier this month.
Miners pay TC/RC to smelters to process copper concentrate into refined metal, offsetting the cost of the ore. Fees tend to decrease as supply becomes tight and increase as concentrates increase.
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The copper concentrate supply outlook worsened next year after Panama ordered the closure of First Quantum’s Cobre mine and Anglo American cut its 2024 copper output forecast.
Therefore, according to the latest forecast by research company CRU, the global copper ore and concentrate market will see a gap of approximately 170,000 tons in 2024.
The CRU expects the Cobre mine, which accounts for 1.9% of global supply, to remain closed until May.
China relies heavily on overseas supplies of raw materials, and demand for ore has increased as domestic smelters boost output to record levels this year.
Customs data shows that the total import volume of copper ore and concentrate from January to November increased by 8.4% year-on-year to 25.07 million tons.
Customs data showed the country imported 629,773 tons from Panama in the first 11 months of this year.
Due to tight supply, the spot TC price assessed by the Shanghai metal market fell below US$68 per ton on Friday.
